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RiskAnalytica Publications

Public Infrastructure Underinvestment: The Risk to Canada's Economic Growth

"For some time, experts have been warning of a deficit between the current state of Canadian infrastructure and what is required—the so-called “infrastructure gap.” And, while it is well known that the quality and quantity of infrastructure has a direct impact upon how efficiently societies are able to operate and grow, individuals and businesses have yet to connect underinvestment in infrastructure to their personal prosperity. Citing a municipal infrastructure deficit in the billions of dollars sounds staggering, but it may not resonate on a personal level with the public.

Rising Tide: The Impact of Dementia on Canadian Society

Based on the technical report "Rising Tide: The Impact of Dementia in Canada 2008 to 2038" by Smetanin, P; Kobak, P; Briante, C; Stiff, D; Sherman, G; Ahmad, S.

Optimizing cost-effective pandemic antiviral strategies including antiviral resistance

Background:
Antiviral drugs are an effective means to improve the recovery rate and reduce mortalities of people with influenza if the virus is sensitive to the drug. Under widespread use for prophylaxis and treatment with the risk of resistant variants arising, the consequences and cost-effectiveness of antivirals are less certain. The objective of this study was to identify the antiviral strategies that remain effective in both life and cost terms, when the characteristics of an emerging pandemic are unknown.

Evaluation of Pandemic H1N1 Interventions in Canada

Background:
The first pandemic of the millennium was declared in June 2009. At that time, the pH1N1 virus was already in circulation in Canada and early reports from around the world indicated a potentially severe pandemic. The initial projections did not materialize but it was not clear whether this was due to the nature of the virus, or the success of public health initiatives. The objective of this analysis was to examine the effectiveness of the interventions used in Canada from both a health and economic point of view.

Potential intensive care unit ventilator demand/ capacity mismatch due to novel swine-origin H1N1 in Canada

Purpose:
To investigate the ability of Canadian intensive care units (ICUs) and ventilators to handle widespread re-emergence of the swine-origin H1N1 virus in the context of an aggressive strategy of vaccination.

Adequacy of current antiviral stockpiles under the Canadian pandemic influenza plan

Background:
The purpose of the current study was to analyze the adequacy of the current Canadian antiviral stockpile during a moderate, drug sensitive influenza pandemic in Canada under three potential interpretations of the Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan (CPIP).

Modeling the second wave of novel soH1N1 virus in Canada

Due to the capricious nature of a pandemic, the precise impact of a soH1N1 second wave remains largely a matter of speculation. This is a cause of concern for those responsible for coordinating pandemic responses. Dynamic pandemic modelling can assist resource planners that need to adapt to a pandemic as it unfolds. Since early June, a pandemic model has been periodically fit to soH1N1 Canadian data with resulting attack rates ranging between 21% and 29%, peaking generally around late December.

Contrast of prophylactically protecting Canadian health care workers and emergency service providers: A moderate Canadian pandemic mathematical assessment

Background:
The spread of the avian strain of H5N1 influenza and the current worldwide outbreak of influenza A (H1N1) highlights an urgent need for preparedness and coordinated health system strategies to effectively combat a potential influenza pandemic. Canada acknowledges the benefits of antivirals (both therapeutically and prophylactically) in reducing the impact of a pandemic. A Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan CPIP) exists and Canadian governments have stockpiled antivirals. The use of antivirals as treatment and prophylaxis within the CPIP Annex E are based on the recommendations put forth by the Task Group on Antiviral Prophylaxis (TGAP). The strategy does not recommend the use of antiviral prophylaxis for emergency service providers and limited post exposure prophylaxis for health care workers.

Lives at Risk from Cancer in New South Wales 2007-2036

Background:
Cancer currently represents the major burden of disease facing our community. It is the major cause of death, the major cause of premature deaths and the major cause of deaths in the productive age groups 45 to 65 years. The incidence rates have increased by 10 per cent in men and seven per cent in women over the last few years. The exceptions are increasing incidence rates of prostate cancer and decreasing incidence rates of breast cancer. However, the numbers of cancer cases continue to increase.

Life and economic impacts of nosocomial methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus, clostridium difficile and vancomycin-resistant enterococci in Canada 2009 to 2038

The goals of the current report are: (1) to estimate the life and economic burden in Canada attributed to the incidence of three nosocomial infections; and (2) to demonstrate the value proposition significance if this burden can be reduced by systematic interventions to improve strategies for nosocomial infections control and prevention. The stated goals of the report are achieved by applying a systematic discrete eventsimulation analysisto the life and economic impacts of methicillin‐resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), clostridium difficile (c. difficile) and vancomycin‐resistant enterococci (VRE) upon the Canadian population and economy from 2009 to 2038.

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